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Time-Space prediction of high impact landslides under changing precipitation regimes.

In Italy a significant increase of landslide frequency and intensity in the last decades has been occurred, whose impact must be evaluated with respect to the convergence in possible negative effects of both rainfall regime changes and of urban development as well as land use changes. Italy, due to its geomorphological and urbanization characters, represents today one of the countries where landslide risk is at the highest level. Such characters urge researchers and Planning Authorities to reconsider also recent landslide prediction studies and Landslide Risk Master Plans.

Besides, the research in this field is considerable increased, thanks to new data acquisition and to new models available, further on indicating that a careful re-examination of the landslide risk in Italy is needed.

This project teams up many of the main Italian experts of landslide analysis and modeling and represents an important condition for data and knowledge exchange, as well as a favorable one towards achievement of the general objectives of the project, which can be summarized as: 1) finalization of innovative methods towards understanding of the triggering and propagation phenomena of landslides, as related to pore pressures evolution within (potentially) unstable slope materials; 2) evaluation of the role of the changes in precipitation trends upon recent and future landslide occurrence; 3) definition of procedures aimed at the assessment of landslide susceptibility and hazard, as related to the main, different, italian geological and evolutional backgrounds.



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